Houston's Housing Market Is Holding Steady. Here's What That Actually Means.

Houston single family home sales fell 11.5% year over year in August, according to the Houston Association of Realtors®. Prices barely moved. That gap between activity and pricing is the real story right now. Not a crash, not a boom, just fewer transactions closing at numbers that have stayed close to flat.

Here's the statewide backdrop first. Texas closed 32,306 home sales in July, up 2.2% from a year earlier, and sales are running 3.2% ahead of last year so far in 2026, per the Texas Real Estate Research Center's September Texas Housing Insight report. The statewide median price sits at $339,000, unchanged from a year ago. Inventory has crept up to about 156,000 active listings, and the state is sitting at 5.5 months of supply, a touch tighter than last year's 5.6. Homes that sold took 63 days on market, up slightly from 61.

Houston specifically had a quieter milestone buried in that report: July was the first month in the past twelve where Houston metro home prices didn't decline year over year, per TRERC.

Now the local numbers, straight from HAR's August report, published September 9. Single family sales came in at 7,100 closings, down 11.5% from last August. Median price landed at $330,000, down about $5,000, roughly 1.5%, from a year earlier. Average price actually rose 1.2% to $426,760, which tells you the mix of what's selling has shifted some toward higher price points even as the middle of the market cools. Active single family listings sit at 38,947, and the market overall (all property types) is carrying 60,390 active listings, up 1% from last August. Months of inventory held at 5.3, and days on market ticked up to 54 from 52.

Condos and townhomes are the softer corner of the market. Sales were flat at 405 units, but median price dropped 7.1% to $195,000, and months of inventory climbed to 8.8 from 8.1. If you own one, that's worth a real conversation about pricing strategy, not a wait and see approach.

HAR Chair Theresa Hill summed it up this way: "Balance remains the defining characteristic of Houston's housing market." That's a fair read. Buyers have more time and more choices than they did a couple years ago. Sellers still have relatively stable pricing to work with, as long as the home is priced to where the current market actually is, not where it was in 2022.

The rate picture adds another layer. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point on September 16, its first increase since 2023, taking the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Mortgage rates had already climbed above 7% heading into that decision, per TRERC, up from the 6.67% average HAR reported for August. Higher financing costs are the headwind everyone in this market is working around right now, and that's likely to keep shaping how many buyers are active month to month.

For close in Houston, Oak Forest, Garden Oaks, and the Inner Loop specifically, this data lines up with what I'm seeing on the ground. Demand for well located, well priced homes inside and just outside the Loop has stayed steadier than the citywide averages suggest, largely because people who want to be close in aren't waiting for rates to drop, they're adjusting price expectations instead and moving when the right house shows up.

If you're trying to figure out what any of this means for your specific street, your specific price point, or your timeline, that's the conversation worth having before you list or make an offer. Numbers at the metro level only tell you so much.

Sources: Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, September 2026 (data through July 2026). Houston Association of Realtors®, Multiple Listing Service report, August 2026, published September 9, 2026. Federal Reserve press release, September 16, 2026.