Blog for this week

“Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait.”—Will Rogers, American vaudeville performer, actor, and humorous social commentator

Realtor.com reports the real estate market appears to be cranking up for spring, Inventory keeps growing—giving buyers more options versus last year—and prices keep falling, now down year-over-year 16 weeks in a row.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports mortgage credit availability "increased to start 2025,... rising to its highest level since June 2022," calling it "a positive development for the spring homebuying season.”

A national online real estate database found that at the start of February, there were five months of for-sale inventory, near a six-year high. Economists see a four- to six-month supply as a balanced market.

STAYING POSITIVE... The good economic news outweighed the disappointing, as the three major stock indexes finished the week ahead, with the tech-y Nasdaq hitting a record high in its best week of the year so far.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation rose to 3.0% in January. But two components in the Producer Price Index (PPI) booked monthly inflation declines, which might keep future consumer prices in check.

Retail Sales receded in January, possibly from bad weather and tired post-holiday consumers. But traders cheered a drop in jobless claims, a hike in Industrial Production, and a delay in the implementation of reciprocal tariffs.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.5%, to 44,546; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 6,115; and the Nasdaq UP 2.6%, to 20,027.

Inflation-hating bonds slipped for the week, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% down 0.79, to 98.25. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell again, to its lowest level in 2025, in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.    

DID YOU KNOW… Zillow reports almost a quarter of all listings had a price cut in January, the largest percentage for the month since 2018, noting “buyers in the market today have a good chance of seeing a price cut on their saved listing.” 

HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, FED MINUTES… The forecast is for both Housing Starts and Building Permits to be down a bit in January. Existing Home Sales are also expected to slip for the month. We'll check FOMC Minutes from the Fed's January meet for indications of future rate moves.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Despite last week's CPI inflation read, Fed watchers still expect the first rate cut of the year to come in June. Note: In the lower chart, the 2.5% probability of change is a 97.5% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.

Probability of change from current policy:

We all rely heavily on texts and emails. But the fact is, a phone call is a far more effective and efficient form of communication, second only to talking to someone face-to-face. Successful people know this, and pick up the phone—frequently!